Our methodology
Where the data comes from
Stats For Betting uses historical match data from the main European leagues: results, goals, half-time scores, cards and bookmaker odds. Results and statistics come from public football data sources and are stored in our own database. Odds come from bookmakers and are updated regularly.
How the probability of a result is estimated
For the match you want to analyse, Stats For Betting looks for past matches in which the situation was similar: the bookmaker odds were close to the current ones, the teams were in similar league positions, or both. How close is close depends on a margin called accuracy, which you can adjust.
Among those past matches, it counts how many ended in each result, how many had more or fewer goals than a given line, and so on. The proportion of each outcome is the estimated probability.
Implied probability and value
A bookmaker odd of 2.00 implies a probability of 50% (1 divided by the odds), before the bookmaker margin is removed. When the estimated probability is higher than the implied one, the bet has positive value according to the historical data.
The yield shows how much that kind of bet would have returned for each unit staked across the similar past matches.
Sample size and limits
A probability is only as reliable as the number of matches behind it. With many similar matches the figure is solid; with few, treat it with caution. Stats For Betting shows how many matches support each figure.
The statistics describe what happened, they do not predict what will happen. Injuries, line-ups, motivation and luck are not in the numbers. Use them as one more piece of information, never as a guarantee.
Betting always involves risk: Responsible gambling
Team pages
The standing, form, goal trends and league position evolution of each team page are calculated from the same match database: points, goals scored and conceded per game, the percentage of games with more than 2.5 goals and the percentage in which both teams score.
Corrections
If you find a wrong result or figure, let us know through the contact page and we will review it.
